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The Government Creates Another Housing Bubble

Friday, June 29th, 2018

“Loose mortgage terms are pushing home prices up. Underwriters need to tighten standards.”

A May 31, 2018 article by Paul Kupiec and Edward Pinto started with the above quote. Here are some highlights:

  • Since mid-2012, real home prices have increased 28%.
  • The root of the problem is declining underwriting standards.
  • In April Freddie Mac announced an expansion of its 3% down-payment mortgage.
  • Government agencies guarantee about 80% of all home-purchase mortgages, so their underwriting standards guide the market.
  • New regulatory guidance allows delinquent taxes to be excluded when calculating credit scores.
  • As many as 10 million families lost their homes to foreclosure during the recession, despite federal programs that modify mortgage payments to prevent foreclosure. Minorities were disproportionately affected.
  • Mortgage underwriters need to tighten standards before it’s too late. Government sponsored enterprises should immediately require at least 5% down on 30 year conventional mortgages. They also should reinstitute  a debt-to-income limit of 45% and stop guaranteeing loans on vacation and rental properties. They should also avoid high balance loans while limiting guarantees for most cash-out refinancing mortgages.

Paul Kupiec and Edward Pinto, Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2018.

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